The “May Day” holiday is often an important node for traditional marketing by real estate companies. This year, before the holiday, many places have introduced policies such as loosening purchase restrictions and “trade-in for new” support policies. Various major real estate companies have also launched a variety of home-buying promotions, leading to local hotspots and popular projects in many cities. According to data from Zhongzhi Institute, the number of visits to high-quality projects in cities like Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Nanjing, and Jinan has increased significantly.
However, the overall performance of the real estate market still shows shortcomings, with transaction data continuing to decline. According to Zhongzhi data, during the “May Day” period, the daily sales area of new homes in 22 representative cities dropped by more than 40% compared to the holiday period in 2023.
Many interviewed insiders from real estate companies mentioned that during the “May Day” period, visits have seen some recovery, with improvements in some cities compared to the previous period, but a decline compared to the same period last year, ranging from 20% to 40%. Some real estate professionals also indicated that the completion rates within their companies were good, but the targets were based on market predictions, and the actual values were not very high.
Multiple cities see a rebound in the real estate market
On May 5th, despite the end of official registration for a project in the Sanlin area of Pudong New Area, Shanghai, visits were still high on that day, with long queues forming outside the sales office.
The sales staff responsible for receiving visitors told First Financial reporters that there were many visitors during the holiday, with about 400 groups of customers visiting every day. Many customers came to make preliminary reservations, with a minimum deposit of 10,000 yuan as an intent fee. During the half-hour that the reporter stayed at the project’s sales office, two groups of customers completed their reservations.
In Beijing, where the 13-year purchase restriction policy was relaxed, the real estate market also became lively during the “May Day” holiday. The new policy in Beijing allows for an additional purchase quota outside the Fifth Ring Road on top of the existing purchase restrictions. A person in charge of a TOP30 real estate company mentioned that there was a significant increase in visits and transactions in the Beijing market compared to the pre-holiday period. The new policy had a clear effect on individual luxury projects outside the Fifth Ring Road in Beijing, with a 30% increase in visits and transactions year-on-year.
Monitoring by Zhongzhi Institute also shows that the number of visits to new housing sales offices outside the Fifth Ring Road in Beijing has significantly increased, with an overall increase of about 20% in the number of visits to typical projects. In terms of regions and projects, differentiation is still evident, with areas like Shunyi and Changping having a certain level of customer support, showing higher market activity and a more significant increase in customer visits.
Although the Guangzhou and Shenzhen markets were affected by adverse weather conditions and performed poorly in the first two days before the holiday, there was a clear recovery in the following days. An insider from a South China real estate company reported to the reporter that the company currently has two projects on sale in Guangzhou, both of which have exceeded their targets.
The above-mentioned person in charge of a TOP30 real estate company also mentioned that during the holiday, many real estate companies launched special price offers and warm-up activities, leading to a significant increase in visits and transactions in the Guangzhou market. The visit and transaction volume in the Shenzhen market also increased slightly by 5-10%, and benchmark projects in core areas also showed good market heat supported by discount promotions.
According to statistics from Guangzhou Zhongyuan Research Institute, several high-quality new projects opened ahead of the small holiday, with many projects choosing to launch after mid-April. One project offered special price units with a size of 93 square meters and a unit price starting with “6” before the “May Day” holiday, and continued with discount activities during the holiday, attracting dozens of local customers looking to upgrade. At the end of April, Poly Group released more than 250 units, with sales totaling 1.6 billion yuan.
Before the holiday, Nanjing also introduced a series of new policies, including mutual recognition and inter-loan of housing provident funds with 8 surrounding cities, buying a house to settle down, housing ticket placement, and “trade-in for new,” which received positive feedback from the market. A project under Jianfa in Nanjing stated that the number of visits exceeded 500 groups in the first three days before the “May Day” holiday.
A person in charge of Longfor also told reporters that during the small holiday, the number of visitors to their projects in Nanjing Tianyaocheng and Yangsong was around a thousand people each, with subscription amounts totaling about 120 million yuan, exceeding expectations by more than 40%. Among them, one group of customers came from Qingdao and had originally planned to develop in Nanjing. They took advantage of the holiday to visit and eventually made a decision to purchase.
According to data from Zhuge Data Research Institute, compared to the new home transactions during the May Day holiday last year, Beijing, Chengdu, and Jinan performed better this year. Among them, Jinan’s growth rate far outstrips the others, with Chengdu and Beijing gradually releasing pent-up demand under the stimulus of relaxed purchase restrictions, leading to increased transaction activity during the holiday, with transaction volumes rising by more than 20% year-on-year.
Data from 58 Anjuke Research Institute shows that during the “May Day” holiday, the daily online search heat for new homes nationwide increased by about 11% compared to the previous five days, and by about 4% compared to the entire month of April, indicating signs of a warming real estate market.
Market pressure remains
Despite the eye-catching performance of some hot projects in certain cities, many cities and projects have not seen significant improvements, and the overall heat of the real estate market during the “May Day” holiday is average.
Not long ago, Changsha had just released a comprehensive lifting of purchase restrictions, but it did not have a significant impact during this small holiday. A market manager of a real estate company in Changsha told reporters that during the “May Day” period, projects with enhanced marketing policies sold well, but projects in the suburbs did not perform well. Overall, the decline was more than 50% compared to last year, and it is expected to continue with a focus on price adjustments.
Another insider mentioned that Tianjin also loosened purchase restrictions for units over 120 square meters, but this did not lead to an increase in transactions, and the policy effect was not significant. In third-tier and below cities, affected by intensified discount policies from real estate companies and the holiday return home trend, there were improvements in visit and transaction performance compared to the previous period, but a year-on-year decline remained, with cities like Wenzhou and Liuzhou seeing a halving year-on-year, and Fuyang down by 20-30%.
According to monitoring by Zhuge Data Research Center, during the 2024 “May Day” holiday (May 1-5), a total of 2123 sets of new residential properties were sold in 12 key cities, with an average daily sales of 425 sets, a total volume decrease of 52.12% compared to 4434 sets in 2023.
The above-mentioned institutions indicated that although many places launched home-buying promotions and relaxed purchase restrictions before the holiday, the overall impact is not yet evident based on total contract data. Phenomena such as continued price declines and high listing volumes still exist, and current homebuyers’ confidence is still lacking. In addition, with a significant increase in travel enthusiasm, there may be a slowdown in the release of homebuying demand.
A report provided by Yihan Think Tank shows that during the “May Day” holiday, the overall visit situation of a large central enterprise has returned to the level of weekends in March and April 2023, but the conversion rate is not ideal, with transactions down by about 20% compared to the same period last year; the decrease in subscription volume for a South China private real estate company during the holiday also reached 17%.
An analyst who has been tracking the real estate market for a long time recalled that the market performance of central enterprises during last year’s “May Day” was good, while this year, sales across all types of enterprises are declining.
An insider from a large real estate company in East China revealed to reporters, “Our completion rate internally is good, but the targets themselves are based on market predictions, so the absolute values are not high.” A person from a South China private real estate company also stated, “During the ‘May Day’ period, except for the performance in the Shenzhen market, which is on par with last year, other places have shown a downward trend year-on-year. One key factor is that the value of goods in many cities has decreased significantly.”
Although the current situation does not show a significant effect of multiple rounds of policies, the adjustment pressure on the new housing market remains, but the industry believes that market demand is still present. Jiang Yuhui, a real estate industry analyst at Xin Da Securities, analyzed that the core impact on demand currently lies in three points: falling house prices, unfinished buildings,